Friday, August 25, 2017

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sixth consecutive month below 17 million SAAR

by Bill McBride on 8/25/2017 01:41:00 PM

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Friday, September 1st.

Note: There were 27 selling days in August 2017, there were 26 in August 2016.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Auto Market Continues Downward Trend in August

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.51 million light vehicles in August. ... The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for August at 16.5 million units, below the 17.1 million SAAR in same-month 2016 and 16.7 million in prior-month 2017.
...
Light-vehicle inventory stood at 3.86 million units at the end of July, up 9.4% from year-ago and about 15% higher than necessary with current sales rates. The streak of record-high stock is expected to continue with 3.8 million units at the end of August, 7.5% greater than same-month 2016. This will leave automakers with a 69 days’ supply, same as prior-month, but well above year-ago’s 62. Slowdowns in production and higher sales incentives through September are expected to narrow the gap between supply and demand.
emphasis added
Overall sales through July are down about 3% from the record level in 2016.