Monday, August 14, 2017

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg, Homebuilder Survey

by Bill McBride on 8/14/2017 06:47:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Up Slightly From Long-Term Lows

Mortgage rates rose moderately today as weekend news headlines suggested some measure of de-escalation of nuclear tensions between the US and North Korea.  To be sure, the news wasn't resoundingly conciliatory, but investors took solace in it nonetheless.
...
In the afternoon, comments from NY Fed President Dudley (one of the 3 most important voices at the Fed) kept pressure on rates, which seemed willing to recover in the late morning hours.  Dudley affirmed investors' assumptions about upcoming Fed policy changes.  Because these changes are net-negative for bond markets, they put upward pressure on rates. [30YR FIXED - 4.00%]
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 9.8.

• At 10:00 AM, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 65, up from 64 in July. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.