Monday, August 14, 2017

Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 9% YoY

by Bill McBride on 8/14/2017 09:28:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in July were up 3.0% year-over-year.

2) Active inventory is now down 8.9% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the ninth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (2.5% through May or 6.2% annual rate).

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jul-085,9741---------54,5272---
Jul-099,09552.2%3,26935.9%38,024---2
Jul-107,101-21.9%2,90140.9%42,88712.8%
Jul-118,39718.3%3,77945.0%27,663-35.5%
Jul-127,152-14.8%3,21444.9%20,384-26.3%
Jul-138,21414.8%2,94435.8%20,049-1.6%
Jul-146,790-17.3%1,68124.8%27,08135.1%
Jul-157,91516.6%1,73121.9%22,940-15.3%
Jul-167,775-1.8%1,53419.7%23,6953.3%
Jul-178,0103.0%1,54119.2%21,590-8.9%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending