Monday, August 21, 2017

Chicago Fed "Index Points to Growth near Historical Trend in July"

by Bill McBride on 8/21/2017 09:50:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Growth near Historical Trend in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.01 in July from +0.16 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.05 in July from +0.09 in June.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was close to the historical trend in July (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.