Saturday, July 29, 2017

Schedule for Week of July 30, 2017

by Bill McBride on 7/29/2017 08:21:00 AM

The key report this week is the July employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the July ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, July auto sales, and the June Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, July 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 65.7 in June.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Tuesday, Aug 1st -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 56.4, down from 57.8 in June.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 57.8% in June. The employment index was at 57.2%, and the new orders index was at 63.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 million SAAR in July, up from 16.5 million in  June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the June sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Aug 2nd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in July, up from 158,000 added in June.

----- Thursday, Aug 3rd -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 244 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 244 thousand the previous week.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.9 from 57.4 in June.

----- Friday, Aug 4th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 222,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.

Year-over-year change employmentThe consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.3%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June, the year-over-year change was 2.24 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through May. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.5 billion in June from $46.5 billion in May.