Friday, July 21, 2017

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 7/21/2017 03:15:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Next week is the annual 2017 revision to the NIPAs, which will update real GDP growth and PCE inflation since 2014. ... Updates to the underlying source data and methodology are likely to result in only slight changes to past GDP growth. The story for inflation is less clear.

More important will be 2Q GDP growth, which we expect will accelerate to 2.1%.
From Goldman Sachs:
Our Q2 GDP tracking has declined [to 1.9%]
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on July 19, up from 2.4 percent on July 14.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q2 and 2.0% for 2017:Q3.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will be around 2% in Q2.