Thursday, July 06, 2017

Goldman Employment Preview

by Bill McBride on 7/06/2017 04:51:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 180k in June, roughly in line with consensus of +177k ... Our forecast reflects mixed labor market fundamentals in the month – including solid employment surveys but weaker jobless claims – as well as a positive impact from youth summer hiring ...

We estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, though we view the risks as skewed towards rounding up to 4.4% ... Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% month over month, reflecting somewhat favorable calendar effects, and 2.6% year-over-year.
CR Note: My employment preview is here.