Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Zillow Forecast: "Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast expects growth of 5.6 percent in the national index"

by Bill McBride on 6/07/2017 10:36:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for March were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: April Case-Shiller Forecast: Tapping on the Brakes

Home prices will finally catch a break in April, when Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast expects growth of 5.6 percent in the national index, slightly slower than its 5.8 percent year-over-year climb in March. The seasonally adjusted month-over-month pace also is forecast to drop, to 0.2 percent in April following a 0.3 percent climb in March.

Annual growth in the smaller 10- and 20-city indices — which was flat in March — is expected to accelerate slightly: The 10-city forecast is for a 5.4 percent gain in annual growth for April, following 5.2 percent annual growth in March. The 20-city index is projected to gain 6.1 percent in April, below its 5.9 percent annual gain in March.

The 10-city index is forecast to climb a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent in April from March, following 0.9 percent monthly growth between February and March. Growth in the 20-city index is expected to slow on a seasonally adjusted, month-over-month basis, rising 0.6 percent in April after a 0.9 percent climb in March.

Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast is shown below. These forecasts are based on [last week’s] March Case-Shiller data release and the April 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, June 27.
The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index will probably be smaller in April than in March.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller