Friday, June 30, 2017

Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sixth Consecutive Decline in June"

by Bill McBride on 6/30/2017 04:59:00 PM

The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Monday, July 3rd.

Note: There were 26 selling days in June 2017, the same as in June 2016.

From WardsAuto: U.S. Forecast: Sixth Consecutive Decline in June

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.50 million light vehicles in June. A daily sales rate of 57,762 units over 26 days represents a 0.7% decline from like-2016 (also 26 days).
...
The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 16.82 million units, above year-ago’s 16.77 million and May’s 16.58 million mark. ...

WardsAuto is forecasting U.S. sales of 17.1 million units in calendar-year 2017. The outlook assumes a sales surge in the summer caused by deep price discounting or other means to trim the excess stock. If inventory is not cut by 400,000 to 500,000 units by September, another sell-off is possible in Q4, probably December. Without such a surge, sales are heading to 16.8 million units for the year.
emphasis added
From Reuters: U.S. auto sales seen down 2 percent in June: JD Power and LMC
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for the month will be 16.5 million vehicles, down nearly 2 percent from 16.8 million units in the same month in 2016.
Overall sales are down from the record in 2016.