Monday, June 12, 2017

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 6/12/2017 11:47:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We revised down our official 2Q GDP forecast to 2.5%, essentially marking-to market. 1Q is tracking a tenth higher to 1.1%.
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on June 9, down from 3.4 percent on June 2. The forecast for second-quarter real GDP growth fell from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent on June 5 after the U.S. Census Bureau's manufacturing report and the incorporation of motor vehicle sales estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on the prior business day.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2017:Q2 and 1.8% for 2017:Q3.