Monday, June 19, 2017

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

by Bill McBride on 6/19/2017 01:58:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.65 million in May, up 1.4% from April’s preliminary pace and up 3.3% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales last month should show a larger YOY gain than seasonally adjusted sales. Local realtor/MLS data also suggest that existing home sales this May show a larger monthly increase than last May, and I project that the NAR’s estimate of the inventory of existing homes for sale in May will be 1.98 million, up 2.6% from April’s estimate and down 7.5% from last May. Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing single-family home sales price in May will be up by about 6.5% from last May.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release existing home sales for May on Wednesday, June 21st. The consensus forecast is for sales of 5.55 million SAAR (take the over).