Thursday, June 01, 2017

Goldman: May Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 6/01/2017 06:02:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 170k in May ... somewhat below consensus of +180k. Our forecast reflects some softening in service sector employment surveys, a return to normal weather, and a modestly slower pace of hiring in May, reflecting labor supply constraints in an economy near full employment.

We estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4%, based on our expectation that household employment will hold on to its sharp year-to-date gains. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year-over-year in tomorrow’s report, reflecting the interaction of firming wage growth with unfavorable calendar effects.
CR Note: My employment preview is here.