Thursday, June 15, 2017

Earlier: NY and Philly Manufacturing Surveys Suggest Solid Growth in June

by Bill McBride on 6/15/2017 11:15:00 AM

Earlier, from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years. The new orders index posted a similar increase, rising twenty-three points to 18.1, and the shipments index advanced to 22.3.The inventories index climbed to 7.7, indicating a rise in inventory levels, and labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. The pace of input price increases was unchanged, while selling price increases picked up somewhat. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook.
emphasis added
And from the Philly Fed: June 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Regional manufacturing continues to expand, according to results from the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. ... The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 38.8 in May to 27.6 this month ... Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 1 point. The index has remained positive for seven consecutive months.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through May) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion in June.