Friday, May 26, 2017

Q2 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 5/26/2017 11:54:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

[T]he data [today] pushed down 2Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 2.5% qoq saar. The main drag was from the weak durables report, while revisions to 1Q GDP caused some modest shifts in the 2Q components.
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.7 percent on May 26, down from 4.1 percent on May 16. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth fell from 8.3 percent to 3.1 percent after Tuesday's housing related releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and Wednesday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q2.

News from this week’s data releases reduced the nowcast for 2017:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point as the positive impact from wholesale inventories data was more than offset by the negative impact from the advance durable goods report and new home sales data.