Thursday, May 04, 2017

Goldman: April Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 5/04/2017 03:15:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by 200k in April, somewhat above consensus of +190k. Our forecast reflects encouraging labor market fundamentals and a favorable swing in the weather, partially offset by slowing job growth in the retail sector.

We estimate the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.5%, based on our expectation that household employment will hold on to its sharp year-to-date gains. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting the interaction of firming wage growth with positive calendar effects.
CR Note: My employment preview is here.