Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Zillow Forecast: "The national Case-Shiller index is projected to climb 5.9 percent year-over-year in March"

by Bill McBride on 4/25/2017 08:39:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: March Case-Shiller Forecast: The Home Price Party Rages On

Home prices are expected to continue to climb in March, but the pace of month-over-month growth is expected to slow, according to Zillow’s March Case-Shiller forecast.

The national Case-Shiller index is projected to climb 5.9 percent year-over-year in March, following a 5.8 percent gain in February. Month-to-month, the national index is expected to be up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in March, following a 0.4 percent monthly gain in February.

Annual growth in the smaller 10- and 20-city indices is also expected to slow slightly: The 10-city forecast is for a 5.1 percent gain in annual growth for March, following 5.2 percent annual growth in February. And the 20-city index is projected to gain 5.7 percent in March, below its 5.9 percent annual gain in February.

The 10-city index is forecast to climb a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in March from February, following 0.6 percent monthly growth between January and February. Growth in the 20-city index is expected to hold steady on a seasonally adjusted, month-over-month basis, rising 0.7 percent in March as it did in February.

Zillow’s March Case-Shiller forecast is shown below. These forecasts are based on today’s February Case-Shiller data release and the March 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, May 30.
The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller national index will probably increase in March.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller