by Bill McBride on 4/01/2017 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, April 01, 2017
The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the March ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, March auto sales, and the February Trade Deficit.
Also the Q1 quarterly Reis surveys for office and malls will be released this week.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 57.1, down from 57.7 in February.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 57.7% in February. The employment index was at 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 65.1%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.4 million SAAR in March, from 17.5 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.5 billion in February from $48.5 billion in January.
Early: Reis Q1 2017 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is a 1.0% increase in orders.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 298,000 added in February.
Early: Reis Q1 2017 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for index to decrease to 57.0 from 57.6 in February.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of March 14 - 15, 2017
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 250 thousand initial claims, down from 258 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 235,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.7%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In February, the year-over-year change was 2.35 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for February.
3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for a $15.0 billion increase in credit.