Thursday, April 06, 2017

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 4/06/2017 02:51:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March, compared to consensus of +180k and February’s 235k increase. Our forecast reflects above-trend underlying job growth that is more than offset by a significant drag from unseasonable winter weather, which we believe may have boosted February payroll growth by 30-50k and could weigh on March growth by as much as 30-60k. We are not assuming a significant impact from the federal hiring freeze implemented in late January, which did not appear to materially affect the February report.
...
We estimate that the unemployment remained stable at 4.7%, as upside risk from a potential pause in household employment growth is offset by some scope for a pullback in the participation rate, following its sharp year-to-date increase. We also estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting tightening labor markets offset by slightly negative calendar effects.
CR Note: My employment preview is here.