Thursday, April 06, 2017

Goldman: March Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 4/06/2017 02:51:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March, compared to consensus of +180k and February’s 235k increase. Our forecast reflects above-trend underlying job growth that is more than offset by a significant drag from unseasonable winter weather, which we believe may have boosted February payroll growth by 30-50k and could weigh on March growth by as much as 30-60k. We are not assuming a significant impact from the federal hiring freeze implemented in late January, which did not appear to materially affect the February report.
We estimate that the unemployment remained stable at 4.7%, as upside risk from a potential pause in household employment growth is offset by some scope for a pullback in the participation rate, following its sharp year-to-date increase. We also estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting tightening labor markets offset by slightly negative calendar effects.
CR Note: My employment preview is here.