Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q4 Flow of Funds

by Bill McBride on 3/08/2017 07:32:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Spike to 2017 Highs

Mortgage rates spiked, big-time, today.  Underlying bond markets had already moved higher in rate overnight, but the trend was taken to a new level by an exceptionally strong employment report from ADP.  Although this isn't the big jobs report (we'll get that on Friday), many market participants treat the ADP numbers as one of several advance indicators of Friday's jobs report.  Sometimes it doesn't register a response, but when it beats the forecast by as much as it did today (298k vs 190k), markets can't help but adjust their trajectory ahead of Friday.

The net effect was the sharpest move higher in rates in several months, slightly outpacing last Wednesday's rout.  Moreover, with the exception of a modest improvement on Monday, rates have moved higher every single day since February 27th.  In just over a week, the average conventional 30yr fixed quote is up approximately a quarter of a percent for most lenders.  Stronger lenders are offering 4.25% on top tier scenarios while many moved up to 4.375% with today's weakness.
emphasis added
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, < The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 238 thousand initial claims, up from 223 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM, The Q4 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.

• At 12:00 PM, Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.