Friday, March 17, 2017

Q1 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 3/17/2017 11:20:00 AM

The advance GDP report for Q1 GDP will be released in April.  Here are a few early forecasts ...

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 16, unchanged from March 15.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2017:Q1 and 2.5% for 2017:Q2.
From Merrill Lynch:
We revised down our 1Q GDP forecast to 1.5%, reflecting a mark-to-market with tracking. However, we expect a payback over the next two quarters and upgraded growth to 2.3% from 2.0%. This leaves 2017 growth unchanged at 2.1%.