Friday, March 31, 2017

Q1 GDP Forecasts Downgraded

by Bill McBride on 3/31/2017 05:11:00 PM

The advance GDP report for Q1 GDP will be released in April.  Based on the February Personal Income and Outlays report released this morning, it appears PCE growth is tracking less than 0.5% in Q1. Here are a few updated forecasts for Q1:

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24.
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2017:Q1 and 2.6% for 2017:Q2.

Negative news from consumption data reduced the nowcast by about one-tenth of a percentage point for both quarters.
From Merrill Lynch:
Real personal spending fell 0.1% mom in February, missing expectations of 0.1% growth ... On balance, these data sliced 0.7pp from 1Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.2% qoq saar.