Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales up 13%, Inventory down 11% YoY

by Bill McBride on 3/07/2017 06:59:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in February were up 12.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 25.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 10.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fourth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases.  This is a key change in trend - something to watch.

February Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Feb-20083,445---65018.9%57,3051---
Feb-20095,47759.0%2,18839.9%52,013-9.2%
Feb-20106,59520.4%2,99745.4%42,388-18.5%
Feb-20117,1718.7%3,77652.7%40,666-4.1%
Feb-20127,2491.1%3,61649.9%23,736-41.6%
Feb-20136,618-8.7%3,05346.1%21,718-8.5%
Feb-20145,476-17.3%1,93935.4%29,89937.7%
Feb-20155,9709.0%1,78429.9%27,382-8.4%
Feb-20165,816-2.6%1,68829.0%27,202-0.7%
Feb-20176,54712.6%1,69625.9%24,275-10.8%
1 February 2008 probably included pending listings