Wednesday, March 08, 2017

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in February

by Bill McBride on 3/08/2017 03:31:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases in February

The Dodge Momentum Index rose 1.6% in February to 144.0 (2000=100) from its revised January reading of 141.7. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. February’s increase was due to a 4.4% jump in institutional planning, while commercial planning slipped slightly, falling 0.3% for the month. The Momentum Index has now increased for five consecutive months; however, the underlying components continue to be volatile on a month-to-month basis as large projects continue to sway the data. The overall trend, however, is rising. On a year-over-year basis the Momentum Index is 22% higher, with commercial planning up 28% and institutional planning moving 15% ahead of last year. This suggests that construction activity will continue to see further growth as the year progresses.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 144.0 in February, up from 141.7 in January.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further increases in CRE spending over the next year.