Wednesday, March 15, 2017

FOMC Projections and Press Conference Link

by Bill McBride on 3/15/2017 02:10:00 PM

Statement here. 25 bps rate hike.

Yellen press conference video here.

On the projections, projections for GDP in 2017 were narrowed slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in
Real GDP1
201720182019
Mar 20172.0 to 2.21.8 to 2.31.8 to 2.0
Dec 2016 1.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.0
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.7% in February, and the unemployment rate projections were mostly unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment
Rate2
201720182019
Mar 2017 4.5 to 4.64.3 to 4.64.3 to 4.7
Dec 2016 4.5 to 4.64.3 to 4.74.3 to 4.8
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of January, PCE inflation was up 1.9% from January 2016. Inflation was revised up slightly for 2017.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE
Inflation1
201720182019
Mar 2017 1.8 to 2.01.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.1
Dec 2016 1.7 to 2.01.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.1

PCE core inflation was up 1.7% in January year-over-year.  Core PCE inflation was unrevised for 2017.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core
Inflation1
201720182019
Mar 2017 1.8 to 1.91.9 to 2.02.0 to 2.1
Dec 2016 1.8 to 1.91.9 to 2.02.0