Thursday, February 02, 2017

Some Random Concerns and Observations ...

by Bill McBride on 2/02/2017 05:33:00 PM

In addition to Captain Chaos (aka Agent Orange) ... here are a few random concerns and observations:

• From Bloomberg: China’s Army of Global Homebuyers Is Suddenly Short on Cash

China’s escalating crackdown on capital outflows is sending shudders through property markets around the world. ... In Silicon Valley, Keller Williams Realty says inquiries from China have slumped since the start of the year. And in Sydney, developers are facing “big problems” as Chinese buyers pull back, according to consultancy firm Basis Point.

“Everything changed’’ as it became more difficult to send money offshore, said Coco Tan, a broker associate at Keller Williams in Cupertino, California.
If this continues, it could have a significant impact on housing, especially in some areas of the west coast.

• After the election, many analysts thought the priorities of the new administration would be tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and deregulation. Goldman Sachs analysts thought the negative policies - immigration and trade - would be delayed until at least 2018. So far the new administration has delayed the policies with potential short term economic benefits - and pushed the negative policies.  This could have negative economic consequences.

• An airplane broker mentioned to me this morning that the high end used airplane business has slowed recently.  Maybe this is related to less money from China and the strong dollar (fewer foreign buyers).

• A couple of observation about coastal California housing: There are many new high end homes under construction (this is all replacing existing stock with high end homes). I've never seen this many homes under construction in the coastal areas. Also there are many homes for rent (maybe this is just seasonal).  It just seems odd.