by Bill McBride on 2/15/2017 02:56:00 PM
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.80 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2016. The delinquency rate was up 28 basis points from the previous quarter, and was three basis points higher than one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.Click on graph for larger image.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 0.28 percent, a decrease of two basis points from the previous quarter, and eight basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest rate of new foreclosures started since the fourth quarter of 1988.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 1.53 percent, down two basis points from the third quarter and 24 basis points lower than one year ago. This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the second quarter of 2007.
The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 3.13 percent, an increase of 17 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 31 basis points from last year.
Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis, offered the following commentary on the survey: "We saw a mixed set of results in the most recent survey. Mortgage delinquencies increased in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2013, while both new foreclosure starts and the percentage of loans in foreclosure continued to decline.
"The overall delinquency rate in the fourth quarter increased across all loan types - FHA, VA and conventional - as compared to the third quarter. However, it should be noted that last quarter's overall delinquency rate was at its lowest level since 2006. It is not unexpected that delinquencies could eventually increase off such a low base. We continue to see strong fundamentals in the overall economy, such as rising home values and increased employment, which bodes well for the future performance of FHA, VA and conventional loans.
This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.
Note that the total percent delinquencies and foreclosures is below the 2002 level.
The percent of loans 30 and 60 days delinquent increased in Q4, but is below the normal historical level.
The 90 day bucket increased in Q4, and remains a little elevated.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process continues to decline, but is still above the historical average.
The 90 day bucket and foreclosure inventory are still elevated, but should be close to normal in 2017. Most other mortgage measures are already back to normal, but the lenders are still working through the backlog of bubble legacy loans.
Posted by Bill McBride on 2/15/2017 02:56:00 PM