by Bill McBride on 2/07/2017 09:07:00 AM
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for December. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for November. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 7.2 Percent in December 2016
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.2 percent in December 2016 compared with December 2015 and increased month over month by 0.8 percent in December 2016 compared with November 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.Click on graph for larger image.
“As of the end of 2016, the CoreLogic national index was 3.9 percent below the peak reached in April 2006,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “We expect our national index to rise 4.7 percent during 2017, which would put homes prices at a new nominal peak before the end of this year.”
“Last year ended with a bang with home prices up over 7 percent nationally, led largely by major metro areas,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We expect prices to continue to rise just under 5 percent in 2017 buoyed by lack of supply and continued high demand.”
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.8% in December (NSA), and is up 7.2% over the last year.
This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was another solid month-to-month increase.
The index is still 3.9% below the bubble peak in nominal terms (not inflation adjusted).
The second graph shows the YoY change in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation).
The YoY increase had been moving sideways over the last two years, but might have picked up recently (the recent pickup could be revised away).
The year-over-year comparison has been positive for almost five consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.