by Bill McBride on 2/28/2017 09:18:00 AM
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index Sets 30-Month Annual Return High
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in December, up from 5.6% last month and setting a 30-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.9% annual increase, up from 4.4% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.6%, up from 5.2% in November.Click on graph for larger image.
Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over the 11 months leading up to December. Seattle led the way with a 10.8% year-over-year price increase in December, followed by Portland with 10.0%, and Denver with an 8.9% increase. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2016 versus the year ending November 2016.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in December. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite indices posted 0.3% increases. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites each reported 0.9% month-over-month increases. Eighteen of 20 cities reported increases in December before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities saw prices rise.
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 8.4% from the peak, and up 0.9% in December (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 6.1% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in December.
The National index is 1.4% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.8% (SA) in December. The National index is up 37.1% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 4.9% compared to December 2015.
The Composite 20 SA is up 5.6% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 5.8% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I'll have more later.