Thursday, January 26, 2017

Friday: GDP

by Bill McBride on 1/26/2017 06:39:00 PM

From the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on January 26, up from 2.8 percent on January 19. After this morning's advance economic indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth increased from 0.74 percentage points to 0.94 percentage points and the forecast of the contribution of net exports to growth decreased from -0.55 percentage points to -0.64 percentage points.
From the NY Fed NowCast
The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% for 2016:Q4 and at 2.7% for 2017:Q1.
From Merrill Lynch:
The advance goods trade deficit narrowed to $65.0bn in December from $65.3bn, which was better than our expectations of $65.5bn. Exports in particular surged 3.0% mom, while imports also gained a solid 1.8%. Advance wholesale and retail inventories were also included in this report, with the former surging 1.0% mom and the latter coming in flat. On balance, these data bumped up our 4Q GDP tracking model by 0.2pp to 2.6% qoq saar, which is our updated forecast heading into tomorrow's advance GDP release.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2016 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.2% annualized in Q4, down from 3.5% in Q3.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.0% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, <University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 98.2, up from the preliminary reading 98.1.