Friday, January 27, 2017

BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.9% Annualized Rate in Q4

by Bill McBride on 1/27/2017 08:36:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.
...
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, a deceleration in PCE, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
emphasis added
The advance Q4 GDP report, with 1.9% annualized growth, was below expectations of a 2.2% increase.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 2.5% annualized rate in Q4, down from 3.0% in Q3.   Residential investment (RI) increased at a 10.2% pace. Equipment investment increased at a 3.1% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 5.0% pace.

I'll have more later ...