Friday, December 02, 2016

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller Index to "continue to accelerate" in October

by Bill McBride on 12/02/2016 03:55:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: October Case-Shiller Forecast: Continuing to put the Recession in the Rearview

According to Zillow’s October Case-Shiller forecast, annual growth in the national index is expected to continue to accelerate, along with upticks in monthly growth in both smaller 10-city and 20-city indices. Sustained growth in the national index will continue to put pre-recession housing peaks in the rearview mirror, as September marked the first month in which national home prices exceeded those set prior to the recession.

The September Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.7 percent year-over-year and 0.8 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), even with the pace of monthly growth and up from 5.5 percent annual growth pace set in September. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from September. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between October 2015 and October 2016, and rise 0.5 percent (SA) from Septmber.

Zillow’s October Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s September Case-Shiller data release and the October 2016 Zillow Home Value Index. The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 27.
The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same or slightly lower in the October report as in the September report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller