by Bill McBride on 12/01/2016 03:58:00 PM
Thursday, December 01, 2016
Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 17.75 million SAAR in November.
That is down about 2% from November 2015, and down 0.9% from the 17.91 million annual sales rate last month.
From John Sousanis at WardsAuto November 2016 U.S. LV Sales Thread: Light Trucks, Extra Days Boost November Volumes
With two extra selling days in November, U.S. automakers outpaced same-month year-ago sales on a volume basis, despite a 4.6% decline in the daily sales rate (DSR).
Strong light-truck sales were a key factor in November sales, as the industry delivered 1,372,402 LVs - 48,904 more than it did a year-ago, over the course of 25 selling days (vs. 23 last year).
Year-to-date sales for the industry reached 15.783 million units, giving the first 11 months of 2016 a lead of just 17,542 units over like-2015 heading into December - and keeping alive the prospect that 2016 will break the single-year sales record set last year.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for October (red, light vehicle sales of 17.75 million SAAR from WardsAuto).
This was at the consensus forecast.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.
Sales for 2016 - through the first eleven months - are close to unchanged from the comparable period last year.
After increasing significantly for several years following the financial crisis, auto sales are now moving mostly sideways ...