Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 30%, Inventory down 2%

by Bill McBride on 12/06/2016 04:44:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was down 2% year-over-year in October.  This followed eight consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in November were up 30.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.4% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

This slight decrease in inventory followed eight monthly YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch.

November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Nov-084,417---1,21727.6%56,2271---
Nov-097,49469.7%2,57234.3%40,372-28.2%
Nov-106,789-9.4%2,96643.7%45,35312.3%
Nov-117,1475.3%3,24545.4%26,798-40.9%
Nov-126,810-4.7%2,94543.2%23,232-13.3%
Nov-135,181-23.9%1,76134.0%26,76215.2%
Nov-144,986-3.8%1,39628.0%27,4262.5%
Nov-155,3086.5%1,54229.1%25,022-8.8%
Nov-166,91130.2%1,61823.4%24,582-1.8%
1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings