Thursday, December 22, 2016

Personal Income increased slightly in November, Spending increased 0.2%

by Bill McBride on 12/22/2016 10:07:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $1.6 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.0 billion (0.2 percent).
...
Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.
The November PCE price index increased 1.4 percent year-over-year and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.6 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2016 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income and the increase in PCE were below expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 2.7% annual rate in Q4 2016. (using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing 3.2%). This suggests decent PCE growth in Q4.