Friday, December 02, 2016

November Employment Report: 178,000 Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 12/02/2016 08:40:00 AM

From the BLS:

The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from +191,000 to +208,000, and the change for October was revised down from +161,000 to +142,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 2,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month.
...
In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.89, following an 11-cent increase in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private- sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $21.73 in November.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 178 thousand in November (private payrolls increased 156 thousand).

Payrolls for September and October were revised down by a combined 2 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 2.25 million jobs.  This has been moving down, but still a solid gain.


The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased in November to 62.7%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 59.7% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in November to 4.6%.

This was slightly above expectations of 170,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped sharply. Another solid report.

I'll have much more later ...