Thursday, December 01, 2016

Goldman's November NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 12/01/2016 02:46:00 PM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' November Payroll Preview by economists Avisha Thakkar and Daan Struyven:

We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth increased to 200k in November, after an increase of 161k in October. We have revised up our forecast from 180k previously reflecting stronger data this week, in particular the ADP report. Our above-consensus forecast reflects an improvement in most labor market indicators last month, positive weather effects and possible residual seasonality.

We expect a one-tenth decline in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.8%. Average hourly earnings likely rose at a softer 0.1% last month, primarily due to negative calendar effects, below the strong gain of 0.4% in October. The year-over-year rate is likely to edge down to 2.7%.
emphasis added
The November employment report will be released tomorrow, and the consensus is for an increase of 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9%.