Tuesday, December 06, 2016

EIA: "Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.30/gal in 2017"

by Bill McBride on 12/06/2016 01:43:00 PM

The EIA released the Short-Term Energy Outlook today. From the STEO:

• U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.9 million b/d in 2016 and 8.8 million b/d in 2017.

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $43 per barrel (b) in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook. The NYMEX contract values for March 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending December 1 suggest that a range from $34/b to $71/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in March 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

• Lower crude oil prices contributed to U.S. average retail regular gasoline prices in November averaging $2.18 per gallon (gal), a decline of 7 cents/gal from the October level. EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to an average of $2.10/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.14/gal in 2016 and $2.30/gal in 2017.

• Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.7 million b/d in 2016 and 0.4 million b/d in 2017.
emphasis added
WTI is currently at $50.69 per barrel, and Brent at $53.86 per barrel. So the EIA isn't expecting any further increase in 2017 (on average).