Tuesday, December 06, 2016

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in October

by Bill McBride on 12/06/2016 10:30:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 6.7 Percent in October 2016

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.7 percent in October 2016 compared with October 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in October 2016 compared with September 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.
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“While national home prices increased 6.7 percent, only nine states had home price growth at the same rate of growth or higher than the national average because the largest states, such as Texas, Florida and California, are experiencing high rates of home price appreciation,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.

“Home prices are continuing to soar across much of the U.S. led by major metro areas such as Boston, Los Angeles, Miami and Denver. Prices are being fueled by a potent cocktail of high demand, low inventories and historically low interest rates,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Looking forward to next year, nationwide home prices are expected to climb another 5 percent in many parts of the country to levels approaching the pre-recession peak.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.1% in October (NSA), and is up 6.7% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was another solid month-to-month increase.

The index is still 4.6% below the bubble peak in nominal terms (not inflation adjusted).

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph shows the YoY change in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation).

The YoY increase had been moving sideways over the last two years.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for fifty seven consecutive months since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.