Friday, December 02, 2016

Brad Hunter: The 2017 Housing Market Forecast

by Bill McBride on 12/02/2016 06:46:00 PM

From Brad Hunter (formerly of MetroStudy) at HomeAdvisor: The 2017 Housing Market Forecast

The 2017 housing outlook is one of diverging trends. HomeAdvisor’s forecast calls for single-family housing to rise at a rate similar to the 2016 rate, but for multifamily construction (apartments and condos) to fall, as the recent apartment boom finally winds down. The single-family home increase is because of job growth and rising household formations, while the multifamily story has more to do with cyclicality. Single-family starts rising 12.2% in 2017, to just shy of 900,000, while multifamily construction falls by 10.7% to 343,000.
CR Note: Hunter describes three scenarios for 2017: Base case, Overshoot and Slow Climb. I also think the multifamily has peaked.

I'll be posting several 2017 forecasts on Monday.