Monday, December 05, 2016

2017 Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/05/2016 12:59:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  It looks like analysts are optimistic on New Home sales for 2017.

First a review of the previous four years ...

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016. In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2017:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2016

From Freddie Mac: Interest Rates Headed Higher. What that Means for Housing

From NAHB: NAHB’s housing and economic forecast

From Wells Fargo: Monthly Economic Outlook

From NAR: U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2016

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2016 will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.175 million.

Housing Forecasts for 2017
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Bloomberg

1,250
Blue Chip

1,260
CoreLogic


4.7%
Fannie Mae6718831,3084.8%2
Freddie Mac

1,2604.7%2
Goldman Sachs6488931,3333.7%
HomeAdvisor56148931,2363.5%
Merrill Lynch6258251,2253.2%
MBA
8601,268
NAHB6478731,258
NAR6238381,2214.2%3
Wells Fargo6008301,1704.4%
Zillow


3.6%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3NAR Median Prices
4Zillow Home Prices
5Brad Hunter, chief economist, formerly of MetroStudy