Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment

by Bill McBride on 11/01/2016 08:47:00 PM

A few excerpts from a piece by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius

• We expect the statement [the] FOMC meeting to remain relatively upbeat about US growth prospects ... However, the committee is very unlikely to raise the funds rate. ...

• To keep markets on notice for a possible rate hike in December, we expect the statement to indicate that the committee is considering action “at its next meeting”—although this is a close call. The statement will likely again say that risks to the economic outlook are “roughly balanced”.

• A statement along these lines should keep the committee on track to raise the funds rate at the December meeting. We see a 75% chance of an increase, roughly in line with market expectations. The remaining uncertainty relates to incoming economic data and financial conditions ... conditional on decent data and stable markets, a December rate hike looks very likely.
Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in October, up from 154,000 added in September.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.