by Bill McBride on 11/21/2016 11:07:00 AM
Monday, November 21, 2016
The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Thursday, December 1st.
Note: There were 25 selling days in November 2016, up from 23 in November 2015.
From WardsAuto: Forecast November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Leave Potential for Record Year
U.S. light-vehicle sales results are expected to track above the year-to-date pace for the third straight month in November, leaving open the possibility that 2016 still could finish with record volume.Here is a table (source: BEA) showing the 5 top years for light vehicle sales through October, and the top 5 full years. 2016 will probably finish in the top 3, and could be the best year ever - just beating last year.
With an upward bias, November sales are forecast to end at a 17.7 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, the third consecutive month the SAAR finished above the year-to-date total, which stands at 17.3 million through October.
If November’s outlook holds firm, year-to-date volume will total 15.8 million units, a smidgeon above 11-month 2015’s 15.7 million, but keeping the prospect alive that 2016 could end as a record year.
WardsAuto is forecasting 2016 to end ahead of 2015. An initial look at December points to a 17.8 million SAAR. Based on the November-December projections, sales will end the year slightly above 17.4 million units, barely topping 2015’s record volume of 17.396 million.
|Light Vehicle Sales, Top 5 Years and Through October|
|Through October||Full Year|
|Year||Sales (000s)||Year||Sales (000s)|