Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM non-Mfg Index

by Bill McBride on 11/02/2016 07:16:00 PM

From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fed Remains On The Sidelines, Excerpt:

As expected, the Federal Reserve left policy unchanged this month. The statement itself was largely unchanged as well. ...

We get two employment reports before the December meeting; for the Fed to stay on the sidelines yet again, we probably need to see both reports come in weak. The first one - for October - comes Friday morning. ADP estimates that private payrolls will be up 147k - not surging, but still easily sufficient for the Fed to justify a rate hike. If this comes to pass, we would probably need a deluge of soft numbers to keep the Fed on hold again.

Bottom Line: Fed is looking past the election to the December meeting for its second move in this rate hike cycle. Probably need some unlikely softer numbers to hold them back again
. Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, down from 258 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for September. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in orders.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.1 from 57.1 in August.