Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Thursday: ISM Mfg, Auto sales, Unemployment claims, Construction Spending

by Bill McBride on 11/30/2016 07:20:00 PM

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC:

"OPEC today struck what increasingly appears to be a historic deal, with both cuts and participation well in excess of earlier expectations.  Total OPEC cuts, compared to OPEC production as recorded by secondary sources for October 2016, are forecast at 1.2 mbpd.  To this is added 0.3 mbpd from Russia, and another, yet-to-be-confirmed 275 kpbd from Mexico, Oman and Kazakhstan.

In total, this would represent a cut of over 1.7 mbpd.  Compliance should be expected at 70% based on historical precedent, representing an effective cut of 1.2 mbpd compared to October 2016 levels.  This is a big deal, and may be enough to balance markets (which some think are already drawing in any event).  With these cuts, global excess crude and product inventories should be run off as soon as the end of Q2 2017, and not later than Q4 2017.

This implies that a robust recovery for the global oil sector is in store, with a strong H2 2017 in the outing."
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 253 thousand initial claims, up from 251 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 52.3, up from 51.9 in October. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 51.9% in October. The employment index was at 52.9%, and the new orders index was at 52.1%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.8 million SAAR in November, from 17.9 million in  October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).