Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 13%, Inventory up 1% YoY

by Bill McBride on 11/09/2016 10:11:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year in October.  This was the eighth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 12.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.0% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 1.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    According to Case-Shiller, prices in Phoenix are up 2.7% through August (about a 4.0% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Oct-085,384---1,34825.0%55,7031---
Oct-098,12150.8%2,68833.1%39,312-29.4%
Oct-106,591-18.8%2,80042.5%45,25215.1%
Oct-117,56114.7%3,33644.1%27,266-39.7%
Oct-127,020-7.2%3,08143.9%22,702-16.7%
Oct-136,038-14.0%1,91031.6%26,26715.7%
Oct-146,1862.5%1,71227.7%27,7605.7%
Oct-156,3082.0%1,57024.9%24,702-11.0%
Oct-167,10212.6%1,49421.0%24,9501.0%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings