Friday, November 04, 2016

October Employment Report: 161,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 11/04/2016 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and financial activities.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000, and the change for September was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 44,000 more than previously reported.
...
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $25.92, following an 8-cent increase in September. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.8 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 161 thousand in October (private payrolls increased 142 thousand).

Payrolls for August and September were revised up by a combined 44 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 2.36 million jobs.  A solid gain.


The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased in September to 62.8%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.7% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in October to 4.9%.

This was slightly below expectations of 170,000 jobs, however job growth for August and September were revised up - and there was solid wage growth. A solid report.

I'll have much more later ...