Sunday, November 27, 2016

November NFP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2016 11:01:00 AM

I hope everyone is having a great Thanksgiving weekend!

A couple of NFP forecasts ...

From Nomura:

[W]e forecast private payrolls grew by 155k in November with an additional 5k increase in government payrolls, implying that nonfarm payrolls grew by 160k. ... given another month of solid job gains, we think that the unemployment rate will tick down for a consecutive month and settle on a rounded basis at 4.8% in November. Lastly, on wage growth, we think some negative payback is in order as wage gains in October were amplified by inclement weather cutting short the workweek during the BLS survey reference period. Therefore, we forecast only a 0.1% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings.
emphasis added
From Merrill Lynch:
Recent labor market data has continued to show solid improvement. We expect the trend to continue in November with 170,000 in nonfarm payroll growth, a slight deceleration from the 176,000 average over the prior three months. We expect 165,000 in private payroll growth, with a modest 5,000 expansion in government payrolls.

We expect the labor force participation rate to remain at 62.8% and the unemployment rate to also remain unchanged at 4.9%. We expect a softer 0.2% mom gain in average hourly earnings after the strong 0.4% mom pop last month, leaving the year-over-year rate at 2.8%.