Friday, November 18, 2016

Mortgage "Rates Rip to Highest Levels Since July 2015"

by Bill McBride on 11/18/2016 05:59:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Rip to Highest Levels Since July 2015

It was all pain, all the time for mortgage rates today.  Since the election, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate has risen roughly 0.5%, putting  November 2016 on a short list of 4 worst months in more than a decade.  Two of those months were back to back amid the 2013 taper tantrum and the other was at the end of 2010.  Let it be known that the recent surge in rates is more than a mere post-election knee-jerk.  Financial markets are fully repricing their expectations of the future, and we can't even begin to assess how that future might actually pan out until Trump takes office.

In other words, buckle up for a higher mortgage rate environment.  Rates won't necessarily be immune from good days over the next few months, but I certainly wouldn't expect a quick, triumphant return to the promised land (rates from 2 weeks ago, and below) within the same time frame.   The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rate quote is now 4.125% on top tier scenarios, and more than a few lenders are already up to 4.25%.
emphasis added
CR Note: Refinance activity will decline sharply, and I expect some slowdown in housing (still thinking about this).

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily: