Wednesday, November 23, 2016

MBA: Mortgage "Purchase Applications Drive Increase in Latest Weekly Survey "

by Bill McBride on 11/23/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Purchase Applications Drive Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2016.

... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since January 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 19 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates have continued to move higher in the post-election period, as investors worldwide are looking for increases in growth and inflation, with the 30-year mortgage rate reaching its highest weekly average since the beginning of 2016,” said Michael Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research & Technology at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Refinance volume dropped further over the week, particularly for refinances of FHA and VA loans. Purchase volume increased sharply for the week compared to both last week, which included the Veteran’s Day holiday, and last year, with purchase volume up more than 11 percent on a year over year basis. The increase in purchase activity was driven by borrowers seeking larger loans and that drove up the average loan amount on home purchase applications to $310 thousand, the highest in the survey, which dates back to 1990.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to its highest level since January 2016, 4.16 percent, from 3.95 percent, with points unchanged at 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With the current level of mortgage rates, refinance activity will probably decline further.


Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was "11 percent higher than the same week one year ago".