Wednesday, November 16, 2016

MBA: "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"

by Bill McBride on 11/16/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2016.

... The Refinance Index decreased 11 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since March 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since January 2016. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

"Following the election, mortgage rates saw their biggest week over week increase since the taper tantrum in June 2013, and reached their highest level since January of this year,” said David H. Stevens, CMB, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Investor expectations of faster growth and higher inflation are driving the jump up in rates, and rates have now increased for five of the past six weeks, spurring a commensurate drop in refinance activity."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to its highest level since January 2016, 3.95 percent, from 3.77 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Refinance Index Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Note that this was for the week ending Nov 11th.  Rates bumped up further on Monday this week, and the survey next week will probably show a further sharp decline in refinance activity.


Mortgage Purchase Index The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was "3 percent higher than the same week one year ago".